Pinball Industry

"And the power is in our hands... if all of us just wait and see and don't rush at new and box prices, it's going to force these companies to lower prices."

Buyers should wait for used games instead of buying new to force price reductions

"The number one problem I see facing this industry is almost everybody's out of space. Almost everybody is out of room because if you've been in this hobby for a long time, your game room is packed and there's not enough newbies coming in at these prices."

The pinball industry's biggest problem is collectors running out of space, not pricing or themes

"Every single game loses money. Every single collector that's buying New and Box is getting burned now"

Current pinball pricing destroys the collector nature of the hobby - every new game loses money

"The reason why this hobby survived for so many years over the last 10 to 20 years is that value was passed on to the customer. Things were still collectible. That is gone. The collectability is gone. The value is gone."

Current pinball pricing has destroyed the hobby's value proposition and collectibility

"You can't have like 10 companies all wanting to sell us a product over $10,000 when you don't need any more. I don't know if all of you are like multi-millionaires, but man, it just gets to the point where there's too much"

Market oversaturation with too many expensive games

"I think Stern Pinball has to be a little bit nervous. Because I do think at these prices, the future of pinball is going to be boutique. That is where the success will lie. Companies like Barrels of Fun. Companies like Spooky. And I think Jersey Jacks in that middle ground, like they're not a boutique, but they're not a Stern."

The future of pinball is boutique companies making limited runs, not mass production

"And this activity of needing money now, it also makes me feel like these companies are not doing well financially because if they were, they wouldn't be taking money four to five months in advance. They just wouldn't be doing it."

Companies taking deposits months before production shows financial weakness

"every single game is basically going to go down in value, the entire market is overpriced everywhere you look"

The entire pinball market is overpriced and games will drop in value

"you pay the most money, you get on the plane first. It's that simple in life. You pay the money at Disney World, you cut the line. And I don't understand why all these companies and all the excuses of, oh, well, they're just going to iron out the kinks"

Premium and Limited Edition games should ship first, not standard editions

"Eventually, we need some of these Pinball companies that are making terrible decisions. We need them to fail. Because if these companies never fail and they never have any consequences for terrible decision-making, so then what are we going to get? Just a series of mediocre games funded by AIMetron."

Some pinball companies need to fail to improve the industry

"the phrase Bye Bye Bye, right, has worked really well in Pinball for many, many years. If you went in on a game early, especially the limited edition games, like that's where the FOMO lies. For so many years... If you went in on mostly every single LE, you made money or you didn't lose any money. And now the market has shifted"

Current pinball market has shifted from 'bye bye bye' (buy immediately) to 'cry cry cry' - people are losing massive amounts on new releases

"Don't rush in and buy any of these games. All these games are going to be selling for less money. All of these pinball machines right now are overpriced. Everybody knows it. It's the greatest time in the history of pinball to wait and see."

All current pinball machines are overpriced and buyers should wait

"I think we're going to see a few pinball companies close their doors in 2024. There's just too many companies out there, the games are really expensive and it's like now or never, you either have a hit game right now or unless you have a billionaire backer it's going to be really tough to keep the lights on"

Several pinball companies will close in 2024

"I'm looking at like 13, 14 Pinball companies out there in the Pinball space. That is just insanity. When Pinball was at its most popular, we only had like four to five companies. Now we've got like 15 companies and I think it's going to be a brutal battleground in 2024."

Too many pinball companies exist currently

"The whole new and box pinball thing is about to collapse. Everybody knows it. There's no room for all of these companies about to drop products between like nine and fifteen thousand dollars."

The NIB pinball market is about to collapse with too many companies dropping $9-15k machines

"Don't mistake me, people. I think all of these prices right now are inane and asinine and stupid. We are not getting our money's worth for $13,000."

Current pinball prices are insane and players are getting hosed - $13,000 is more than anyone wants to spend on any pinball machine

"That's right, Spooky Pinballs Looney Tunes seems to have more excitement than Keith Elwin's Jaws... as of today, yeah, I think Looney Tunes had a better showing than jaws pinball."

Spooky Pinball's Looney Tunes has more excitement and better showing than Keith Elwin's Jaws

"I think it's going to get crazy over saturated in 2024. And at these prices, I don't know if all of you are getting 40% raises at work, but when I go around the world now, inflation is everywhere... it's crazy to me that pinball is off in the corner trying to sell thousands of games a year. And at these prices, I just wish all these companies good luck because I'm not sure it's sustainable at these prices."

Pinball market oversaturation and high prices are unsustainable

"I'm here to tell you right now I think this is the beginning of the end of these ridiculous prices, I don't think this hobby is going to survive 2024 at these prices, there's no way"

This is the beginning of the end of ridiculous pinball prices - hobby won't survive 2024 at these prices

"The truth is, and we all know this at most, this hobby only needs about three to four new titles a year. That's all it can really absorb when you think about the fact that people have to free up room and free up money to buy these games."

Pinball market is oversaturated with too many games

"I love that Robin on pinside makes more money than every single pinball designer. It's incredible. You know, sometimes the best way to make money is be on the peripheral of the thing people love."

Robin on Pinside makes more money than pinball designers

"They're not afraid to speak their mind about companies that are charging as $5,000 to $15,000 on unnecessary toys, putting less magic in these games than ever before and jacking the price up 40%."

Modern pinball pricing criticism - companies charging $5,000-$15,000 for games with less content and 40% price increases

"And you know what they've done instead? They hired software people. They've hired artists. They don't want to put mechanically complex wow toys into the games because it takes money, it takes effort, and the things might break down. So they took the cheap way out and just filled these games with artwork and animations and then charged us through the roof"

Pinball companies have prioritized software and art over mechanical engineering to save money

"the pinball marketplace has flatlined people. Nobody is buying Elton John and now games that people bought less than a year ago is losing this much money in value"

Pinball market has completely collapsed - Foo Fighters LE losing $3000 in value while still NIB proves the entire industry is in crisis

"Mark my words, people, we are going to start to see pinball machines with 50% off just to get them sold. If you think the market's not going to collapse, people, it's collapsing right now."

Pinball market is collapsing with 50% discounts coming soon

"I would argue that Pulp Fiction might be the last great theme at a great price that we're gonna see in the history of pinball."

Pulp Fiction might be the last great theme at a great price in pinball history

"I would argue it's kind of like quantity over quality in the world of pinball."

The pinball hobby has become quantity over quality with too many companies and games

"We're in a period now where almost every single company has like fleeced its own consumer base, like everyone's been greedy. Everyone's been treating their customers a little unfairly."

Most pinball companies have been fleecing their customer base

"there's too many options in pinball right now there are just too many"

Too many options in pinball right now, market is oversaturated

"I just want each and every one of you to know it's a good time to wait and see... By the end of next year, you're all going to say, I'm glad I listened to Kaneda. I'm glad I waited."

Players should wait and not fall for FOMO because amazing games are coming in 2024

"Pinball has lost what made it so special. The greed is everywhere. It is absolutely everywhere."

Current pinball pricing is insane compared to historical prices - games selling for double/triple their original value

"The one thing I want to get in pinball, I want to get triple A theme that is integrated properly with mechanical magic under glass. That is what I want from pinball."

Kaneda's core wish for pinball: triple A themes with proper mechanical integration

"I've been following this hobby for 10 freaking years. I've never seen a pinball climate just like this. It has never been like this before."

Current pinball market is unprecedented with distributors panicking over unsold inventory

"They are not used to buying their allocations from stern and watching these games sit"

Pinball market is softening with distributors struggling to move inventory

"If we keep looking backwards in pinball, I don't think that's what people want. I think what people want is for us to get inspired by all of the magic from the 90s and apply some of that magic to these modern games."

Pinball industry should focus on new games, not remakes of old titles

"Is the creativity in Pinball, is it aligned with where the cost of these machines are? And now for each and every one of us, we have to ask that question when we get asked to buy a new machine."

Creativity in pinball is not aligned with current high costs - companies are designing to cost rather than maximizing innovation

"pinball is the most expensive it's ever been, and this is the best we can do"

Modern pinball lacks creative mechanical innovation despite higher prices

"He is the only designer going right now that can justify these prices. Nobody else in pinball. Nobody not George Gomez not John Borg not Brian Eddy not Luke and bug Not Eric Mignor nobody else in pinball when you look at what they're putting out over the last few years"

Only Keith Elwin can justify current pinball prices

"I think the pinball industry, for all of its potential for creativity, for all of its potential to create amazingly fun pinball machines with a world under glass, theme integrated, everything you want in pinball, for all of it. I still think this industry sorely lacks in creativity."

Pinball industry lacks creativity and needs fresh talent instead of recycling same designers

"It's quite obvious that BLE Williams had a team of engineers that made these designers look like rock stars. It's why we've never seen anything nearly as impressive mechanically on any modern games as we've seen on BLE Williams machines."

Williams/BLE engineers made designers look like rock stars - modern games can't match 90s mechanical engineering

"I would say like seven or eight out of every new machine we get is not as good as previous machines we've had. And as the prices keep climbing up and up and up, I think there needs to be a little bit of a voice of reason."

Most new pinball machines aren't as good as older ones despite higher prices

"There are about 15 companies right now that are legitimately calling themselves pinball companies 15. How many of them on an annual basis actually execute? Like four of them"

Only 4 out of 15 pinball companies actually execute annually - most are failures

"I think pinball companies do very little market research. Market research means you don't make galactic tank force. Market research means you do not make Toy Story 4 only. Market research would show you you do not do the Godfather pinball."

Pinball companies do very little market research

"The joy of buying pinball Machines second hand is gone... It's just not fun buying and trading these games anymore at these prices."

Current pinball market pricing has removed joy from buying and trading games

"Jersey Jack, you would sell way more Barbie pinball machines than the Godfather. You would sell way more, three times as many, maybe five times as many."

Barbie pinball would outsell Godfather and most other themes

"You are hearing it on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast that I am predicting the dark horse of this year in October, a remake of a classic game by Pedretti Gaming and the pinball brothers and Rick over at Planetary."

Predicting pinball brothers and Pedretti Gaming will reveal Big Bang Bar or Twilight Zone remake as the dark horse of 2023

"I'm worried that what's going to happen to pinball is what happened to Disney. They're going to overcharge their customers... Then you make too much content... There is too much content happening in the pinball space and there's not enough money to go around"

The pinball industry is heading for disaster like Disney

"We have now spent $30,000 on two stern LEs. That is crazy, people. We all know it. We all know we're living in this new era of pinball, the most expensive era of pinball ever."

Current pinball era is most expensive ever with $30K for two Stern LEs

"Shots are the new toys, baby. Shots are the new toys, Kaneda. Nobody needs to engineer an actual toy that does anything. We don't need a medieval madness castle. We don't need a disappearing magnet like in Tales of the Arabian Nights. We don't need a Theatre of Magic magic trunk."

Shots are the new toys - manufacturers no longer engineer actual mechanical toys, just focusing on shot geometry instead

"And here's my prediction gang. Stern is gonna put seven of those companies out of business in the next two years. Easily. Stern will put seven of those 14 companies out of business in the next two years."

Prediction: Stern will put seven of the fourteen pinball companies out of business in the next two years.