Pinball

"There is only really a few times, maybe every couple of years, where you better act quickly or you're not going to be able to get the game for MSRP. And what we've seen since like 2023 began is almost every single new pinball machine that has come out, almost every single new machine has lost about 10 to 20% in value over its NIB price."

FOMO buying and speculation on new pinball releases is foolish in current market

"these distributors that have been telling you to buy, buy, buy... They're price reducing all of their inventory because people are not buying"

Distributors who promoted inflated prices are now cutting prices dramatically

"If you waited you could get the godfather for two to three thousand dollars off if you waited you could get toy story for $4,000 off now, I mean Guns N' Roses lees now You can't even give away a Guns N' Roses LE right now"

Current market allows waiting for better prices

"There's 22 of them and you're telling me that there's only one guy out there that really has built a reputation lately of take my money now. Everybody else, it's conditional whether or not you will buy the next game from them."

Only Keith Elwin creates 'take my money now' games - all other 21 designers produce conditional purchases

"You don't listen to my show and hear a bunch of advertisements for vendors or distributors or for games. You can listen to other pinball personalities and they're always super excited and shilling everything happening in the hobby. And look, that's their prerogative and that's fine. I think the world needs those sort of everything is awesome cheerleaders. But we also just need a counterpoint."

Kaneda's role as counterpoint to overly positive pinball media

"more and more of you are coming up to me and saying, hey, Chris, I've taken your advice. And look, it's panning out... If I just waited and think about Jurassic Park 30th, you're going to be able to get one of these for less than $13,000 if you just wait."

Waiting to buy games is paying off as prices come down

"if you just wait a little bit, if you don't get on the hype train, if you don't join the FOMO hype train, you will be in a much better position, you'll be much happier with your relationship with the hobby"

Great pinball pause - people should wait and not buy pinball machines immediately due to high prices and lack of proportional value

"just pause all of your pinball spending and tell me at the end of those two months much like when Kaneda cut out coffee and alcohol I guarantee you at the end of those two months you are going to be happier you are going to appreciate the games you have even more and you are not going to regret it"

Prediction: People who pause their pinball spending for two months will be happier and appreciate their games more.

"I've already heard from my distributor friends, this thing's not selling out and Stern just sent an email... they are willing to give distributors one more LE if they buy four more games from Stern. There's a real issue happening behind the scenes in the pinball space"

Distributors are struggling with unsold inventory and having trouble committing to new releases at current prices

"FOMO is dead on these kinds of titles. The only place that FOMO is still alive is with a triple A game... you could just wait and see. And you'll absolutely be able to get it for easily like 20 or 30% off in six months. Everybody knows that"

FOMO is dead except for triple-A games - people can wait and get 20-30% off in six months

"I don't see anybody and I mean this anybody in the pinball content world looking out for the customers asking these questions. They simply are shilling and cheerleading for all these companies"

Distributors and content creators are shilling for companies instead of protecting customers

"I think pinball shows suck at getting a feel for games. The experience at the shows themselves is when it comes to playing pinball is so bad. It is the shittiest way possible to showcase people of the game. Why does nobody even, if I was a pinball manufacturer, I would not wanna be on the main show floor."

Pinball shows are terrible for showcasing games

"this is the other reason why it is very dangerous that we have distributors giving reviews of pinball stuff like this because they're never going to be objective with you because they're going to make money on everyone sold"

Distributors can't give objective topper reviews because they make money on sales

"There's a dirty little secret in pinball that nobody wants to admit. That most collectors are you waiting for it? We suck at pinball. We're not great at pinball. We're not getting to wizard modes."

Most pinball collectors suck at pinball and rarely play their games deeply

"I can't believe like shows can stretch out a single post by Joe Kaminkow into 90 minutes of discussion about Harry Potter."

90-minute Harry Potter pinball rumor discussions are excessive

"the dirty little secret in pinball that they don't want you to know about is so many of the games you enjoy are designed before they know what the theme is... Why are there mechanisms in half of these pins that have nothing to do with the property?"

Games are designed before themes are chosen, leading to lazy mechanisms

"if this thing is as good as I'm hearing it is, this guy is going to make more money than all these pinball designers combined"

Mod makers like Lurmods will make more money than boutique pinball manufacturers

"if you run a pinball company, you should be answering every single email within a single working business day, there is no if, ands, or buts about it"

Pinball companies should answer every customer email within one business day

"I think a pinball machine should be enjoyable, and I think it should give magical moments without having to read a Bible on how to stack a million things, and that's never what pinball was supposed to be."

Pinball machines should provide magic without requiring extensive ruleset study

"Because everyone else in the content space these days is getting kickbacks from these manufacturers and these distributors. Uh-oh, Kaneda said it again, but that's the truth."

Pinball content creators are getting kickbacks from manufacturers and distributors

"And pinball marketing, which is atrocious, continues to remain atrocious. I don't understand it. You spent years working on a game. You've spent so much time and energy, and you get one chance to make a first impression. And what do you do? You wait too long."

Pinball marketing is atrocious and companies need to stop waiting too long to reveal games

"I guarantee most of you are not going to want to drop 30 grand on two pinball machines in a one month period when taxes are due."

Prediction: Most collectors are not going to want to drop $30,000 on two pinball machines in a one month period when taxes are due.

"The greatest news that's happening in pinball right now is simply this. The entire hobby is now a buyer's market. And we should be celebrating that. These games are not selling out in day one."

Pinball market is now a buyer's market with overpriced games

"that's always been the approach of everybody else who does pinball podcasts, right, let's just celebrate everything, and let's lower our expectations"

Pinball podcasters should stop celebrating everything and lowering expectations

"I guarantee you, ladies and gentlemen, all of them, because there's too much coming out. And how do you move cars off the lot when people aren't buying it right away? You discount it and that's going to happen to pinball."

Prediction: All pinball games over $10,000 will be available for 20% less than March prices if you wait a few months, because there's too much coming out.

"I feel ashamed for all you distributors out there that are trying to convince us that this game is worth anywhere near that much money. And we all know you're making like anything over $15,000 is money in your pocket, so no wonder you're trying to convince us to buy this game."

Direct challenge to distributors defending the James Bond pricing

"Trust me, the day one FOMO in Pinball is dead. It is dead. And I know people are like, well, if it was a hot title, it wouldn't be sure. That hasn't been the case since Godzilla."

Day one FOMO in pinball is dead - no game has sold out quickly since Godzilla

"scalping and flipping machines is pretty much dead. Like FOMO is dying quickly in this hobby and it's dying quickly. You know why? Two things. Lack of creativity, lack of great themes and also higher prices"

FOMO and scalping in pinball is dying due to lack of creativity and higher prices

"I still to this day do not understand why pinball marketing is so pathetically bad pretty much across the board in the pinball world"

Pinball marketing is pathetically bad across the board - companies need better video content

"Like 80% of games that just came out are now cheaper than they were brand new"

80% of new pinball games in 2022 are now cheaper used than new

"I would argue that collecting pinball machines is absolutely now jump the shark"

Collecting pinball machines has jumped the shark due to lack of true specialness

"When I hear these pinball apologists like make excuse for these companies and the high prices, I don't understand why people in the community are actually making excuses for these high prices as if those individuals are shareholders in these companies."

Criticism of pinball apologists who defend high prices as if they're shareholders

"Do not buy a game unless the game is great, unless the game is a masterpiece. We are at a certain inflection point in this hobby right now where it's going to be quite amazing to see which way it goes."

Don't buy any pinball game unless it's a masterpiece - the old model is over

"I guarantee you, if you wait two years, every game you want will be available for less than it is now, every single game."

Current pinball market is the worst time to invest in new machines - everything will be cheaper in 2 years

"I think we're going to see over the next 12 months, prices come back down to reality. I really do. I don't think we're going to see this crazy inflation continue"

Pinball market correction coming - insane price increases unsustainable

"The dirty little secret in this entire hobby is that if you all looked in the mirror right now, do you need another pinball machine? Do you need another pinball machine to be happy? Is your collection filled with great games? Do you even have just a few great games that you love? Why do you need another game?"

People don't actually need another pinball machine and should examine their motivations

"I don't think there's any excuse anymore for bad design. If you're designing a whitewood of a pinball machine, how can you stop designing that whitewood until it shoots great? And why is it so hard to make a game shoot great? Can you study all the other pinball machines that are out there, and just borrow ideas from existing designs?"

There's no excuse for bad pinball design when you can study existing successful designs

"These manufacturers have baked into the price, the scalping and flipping prices of the game. They saw what we were doing and I was one of them. And they saw people buying low and selling high. And they decided they wanted more of that pie for themselves."

Manufacturers have baked scalping/flipping prices into their MSRP

"Why should you feel icky about getting a small compensation for all the hard work you do?...You know how many hours you put into your shows"

Pinball content creators deserve financial support and shouldn't feel guilty about monetization

"I think patience is the greatest virtue in pinball. And I think a lot of us right now are starting to realize that."

Patience is the greatest virtue in pinball collecting

"And we all know the dirty little secret about collecting pinball machines. It's that most pinball collectors don't even play their games very much. So when you buy it used, it will ostensibly still be a brand new pinball machine."

Most pinball collectors don't play their games much, so buying used is essentially getting new machines

"So many people out there will not talk about stuff. Even if they caught wind of this, they would have buried it because they don't want to burn their relationships with Stern."

Other pinball content creators avoid rumors to protect relationships with Stern

"I also think it goes to show that some of these content creators, they really are in Stern's back pocket because that's why they're not saying anything."

Pinball content creators are in Stern's back pocket and avoiding coverage of the James Bond leak controversy

"I'm going to buy the game that's available today. I'm not going to buy a game hoping that it gets better a year from now. That's not how we should be buying pinball machines."

Only buy pinball machines based on current state, not future code promises

"I don't like that. I like buying pinball from a company whose sole focus is pinball. I like buying from a company like Stern who needs to stay on schedule. I like buying from a company like Stern that's going to be around in 10 years because this is all they do."

Prefers buying from companies whose sole focus is pinball

"I want to talk about how I think there is just fear permeating through the pinball distributor landscape. They know they all overbought, but I actually have a lot of empathy for my dealers and distributor friends because it's hard."

Fear permeating through pinball distributor landscape - all overbought inventory

"what I think is happening now in pinball is these manufacturers are getting greedy. And the greed is going to hurt them because it is greedy"

Manufacturers have gotten greedy with pricing and are about to overprice the market

"Scalping in pinball is almost done. The only scalping left... The only machine I ever think you're going to be able to scalp for like a decent profit will be the machines from Keith Elwin."

Pinball scalping days are over except for Keith Elwin games

"all of these manufacturers have dug a ditch. They've dug a ditch. And the only way for them to get out of it is to give us great games... At these prices, everyone's expecting the next Godzilla."

High prices will force manufacturers to make better games

"none of the manufacturers want to step into this ring"

Manufacturers won't come on the podcast because they don't want to face tough questions